Major League Baseball has returned. America’s pastime may attract more bettors than ever before, as sports betting has become legal in 27 states. There are also lots of betting options because there is a full 162-game season available. Because a point spread is the great equalizer and relatively simple to follow, football and basketball make MLB betting strategy easier for bettors.
You must win the wager if you wager on a team that is a five-point favorite because they must win by a minimum of six points. The underdog team must win or lose by four points or less if a wager is made on them. Bets on either side are refunded if the favorite wins by precisely five points. Baseball betting is not as difficult or frightening as many people believe, despite requiring a little more math.
Follow the Lines of the First Five Innings
Anytime you are thinking about placing a wager on the result of a game, it is worthwhile to take into account the first five innings lines. You can wager on which team will win after five innings of play by using first five innings baseball betting. The ability to concentrate your betting strategy on the starting pitching is by far the best reason to think about restricting your wager to the first five innings, though there are other reasons as well.
The Weather Is Important
Becoming an amateur meteorologist could be a lucrative endeavor for those who enjoy placing bets on totals. Quick research on whether the wind is blowing out of a “hitter’s park” or the fact that balls are more likely to fly over the wall in warmer weather than in colder weather can provide expectations for the number of runs that can be scored during a game.
Think about the Contrarian Run Line.
The run line in baseball is always 1.5. A strategy that contrarian baseball bettors have found involves backing small-market, unpopular teams that are losing to a much better team. Bets on these underdogs pay off at an absurd rate—62% since 2005—because the run line gives the underdog an opportunity to win even if they lose (by no more than a run anyway).
Here are some strategies to increase that win rate. To begin with, you will gain a few more percentage points of advantage if you only take into account non-divisional games. I attribute this to familiarity. Compared to non-divisional opponents, divisional opponents are more familiar with one another.
Examine Pitcher Trends
The last baseball betting tactic that any respectable free MLB picks handicapper should employ is researching pitching trends. It is just as crucial as having a batting order strategy, if not more so. There is no escaping the fact that every play begins with a pitch, and the caliber of those pitches is crucial. Carefully evaluating each team’s likely pitching lineup is essential when betting on sides, totals, or first five inning lines. Look at the “splits” section when you go to a website such as ESPN to look at a pitcher’s profile. Splits give a clear picture of a pitcher’s performance in a wide range of situations.
Recognize the umpires
When it comes to calling balls and strikes, each home plate umpire has their own preferences. Pitchers are forced to be more accurate because umpires with smaller strike zones produce more called balls, which results in more walks. Whenever the strike zone is narrow, look for Over results. Pitchers benefit from umpires with larger strike zones because they call fewer balls. When the strike zone is more liberal, look for Under results.
Examine the schedule
Examine the schedule for any possible benefits or drawbacks. Teams may be exhausted after a doubleheader or motivated by retaliation against playoff rivals. You can place well-informed wagers that take advantage of a particular team’s advantage by recognizing these scheduling oddities.
Examine the ballparks
When it comes to handicapping totals, stadiums are crucial. Consistent over/under trends can be caused by a variety of factors, including ballpark dimensions, local weather, and even the home team’s roster. Understanding these patterns can help you place more intelligent wagers that take advantage of these park-specific benefits. You will have an advantage in your baseball betting strategy if you comprehend the influence of ballparks.