In 1994 MLB franchise owners wanted to avoid small-market teams collapsing during a financial crisis, proposing that the best way to protect them was to split TV revenue more evenly between all teams, and bring in a salary cap for players. However, the players were not happy with the proposals in the slightest, and so, on August 12th, they collectively decided to call a labor strike.

This went on for so long that it broke the MLB record for the longest strike in history, lasting 232 days, and cancelling 948 games in the process, including the 1994 postseason. This was the first time since 1904 that a World Series was cancelled, not even World War I or World War II had managed to cause that much of a hindrance.

But on April 2nd 1995, players alongside the MLB and franchise owners were able to finally conclude negotiations and come to an agreement to end the strike and move forward. And it was all smooth sailing until these last couple weeks, in which the last agreed collective bargaining agreement expired, and franchise owners immediately activated a lockout. Ending a labor peace of 9,740 days without issue.

Tensions have been rising over the last few seasons, so a lockout isn’t as surprising as some are making out. But they have always been able to come to an agreement amicably that meant no lockout was needed and no strike was called, avoiding the cancellation of games. But what could it mean now?

The outcomes

There are two possible outcomes really with this current MLB lockout. Either everyone can sit down at the table, discuss the issues they have and come to an agreed decision. This is what the MLB will be hoping for most. However, if all parties fail to come to an agreement, we could see players refusing to take part in games and miss not only preseason, but also the start of the regular season too.

That’s one reason why the lockout was activated so quickly, to give all sides enough time to negotiate, without impacting the upcoming campaign. But doing it so far in advance to avoid that shows there are genuine concerns that these discussions could go on for some time, hence why franchise owners are giving themselves as long as possible to negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement before it has a major impact. But what impacts could there possibly be?

The impacts

The biggest impact that could happen, is we could possibly miss part of, or all of the season. As has happened in the past, if parties can’t agree to new terms, players could refuse to play. This would not only be a big loss in terms of revenue for franchise owners, but it would also have an impact on the diehard fans who look forward to attending each and every game they can to see their team compete for the ultimate prize in baseball, the World Series.

But this could have further impacts too. As it stands, the favourites to win the upcoming season are the Los Angeles Dodgers at +500, narrowly followed by the Houston Astros at +700. Last season’s surprise champions, the Atlanta Braves, are then third favourites to go back-to-back as World Series champions at +900.

But if teams miss the preseason, and it delays the signing of new players until an agreement can be made, the MLB odds offered on teams could well change. Especially with some teams having aging squads that will need to be replaced with fresh blood. Although in anticipation of the lockout, many teams did a lot of business on the days leading up to the lockout, anticipating that it may happen, with $1.4 billion in new contracts being committed to.

But if negotiations can be reached early enough that the new season will not be affected, we could actually see that figure smashed, as teams look to strengthen their sides with free agents. And we’re not just talking about some aging players to have on the roster as cover, there are some big names available such as Carlos Correa, Clayton Kershaw, Kris Bryant and Trevor Story.

But they’re not the only ones, with 141 big-league free agents available to sign, once they are able to negotiate contracts, and theoretically, this number could grow if there are any contracts that expire before the start of the new season. But because all MLB business is frozen due to the lockout, it means all these athletes are left in limbo wondering what their futures hold.

But, if negotiations are concluded in time, we could see teams competing to sign many of these players to new contracts, with a value of the overall contracts surpassing the $1.4 billion just spent, with all available players valued at over $1.9 billion. Although with new salary caps, it may be the case the amount teams are able to pay players is actually reduced. But we can’t see players agreeing to pay cuts, so that’s unlikely to happen, and if it were something owners were to push on with, would be the main reason that a strike would likely occur.

Final Words

It’s going to be an interesting few months in MLB with the lockout and all the factors around it. Hopefully, for the sake of the fans it can be sorted out pretty soon, so it doesn’t affect the upcoming season. But if it is anything like the last strike in 1994, we could potentially be missing out on a lot of baseball. But at least this time it’s not due to a pandemic, so it should be much easier to get going again once everything gets sorted.